Nerd alert! I went ahead and put together a remaining strength of schedule chart for teams ranked 5-9 in Hockey East. Here are the current standings:
1. BC (26pts) 2. UNH (24pts) 3. BU (20pts) 4. Maine (19pts) 5. Merrimack (17pts)
6. Northeastern (16pts) 7. UMass (13pts) 8. Providence (10pts) 9. UVM (9pts)
10. UMass Lowell (6pts)
I consider the top four in Hockey East to be at their own level, some shifting between them may happen before the end of the season, maybe not. Merrimack is sort of in a class of their own, good, but to be considered a real threat to win Hockey East or make a dent on the national level they will need to finish strong, which could easily happen. Northeastern and UMass have had similar seasons in HE as have Providence and UVM. Bringing up the rear is of course is UMass Lowell. My only rationale for putting Merrimack into this analysis is that I’m still a bit shocked at how good they are, I guess some part of me wants to believe that they could fall apart. UMass Lowell wasn’t included in the analysis because they stink, sort of like UVM, but more pungent. If they find a way into the HE playoffs good for them, I don’t see it happening.
Merrimack, Northeastern, UMass, Providence and UVM all have 12 games remaining. Each team’s remaining 12 are broken down into 4 categories: remaining games against the top 4, remaining games against Merrimack, remaining games against the bottom 3, and Home/Away. Based on these measures each team’s strength of schedule has been judged relative to one another. 1 being the toughest schedule, and 5 being the easiest.
Strength of schedule: final 12 games |
Remaining against top 4 | Remaining against MK | Remaining against bottom 3 | Home/Away |
1.Northeastern |
7 |
1 | 1 |
5/5 2 – Beanpot |
2.UMass |
6 |
3 | 1 |
7/5 |
3.UVM |
6 |
2 | 4 |
6/6 |
4.Providence |
5 |
2 | 4 |
5/7 |
5.Merrimack (MK) |
4 | – | 4 and 3 vs. UMass |
6/6 |
Having the easiest schedule and being the best team will leave Merrimack out of the playoff race discussion…they’re in. However, Northeastern having such a tough schedule down the homestretch may develop into an interesting story line late, especially if UVM or Providence turns it on. Despite their relatively tough schedule I wouldn’t be surprised to see UMass make a run. They have talent and leadership at the goaltender position with Dainton, and in my mind a premiere scoring line in Hobbs, Gracel, and Snyer. In the end,one of these four teams will end up being squeezed out of the HE playoffs. I’m hoping that UVM will be in a “win and in” position heading into their final home and home against UMass Lowell.
Any predictions?
Andrew – Great job on your analysis of HE teams 5-9. I think you’re right on target , but wouldn’t be surprised to see Merrimack break into the top 4 – likely replacing Maine (I hope).
And I also agree that UVM hockey this year is not nearly as
“pungent” as UMass-Lowell whose defense – including a starting
goalie – is filled with inexperienced freshmen.
Mostly agree with anon– but only one point back with two games in hand, I think Maine and then Merrimack pass BU instead.
You are probably right about this, any thoughts on this weekends games?
[…] the standings, even though the Huskies have played two more Hockey East games than the Minutemen. As noted in a fantastic post by our fellow bloggers at The Gut, Northeastern has the toughest remaining Hockey East schedule. If the Minutemen could get ahead of […]
Great post guys. I had to work a link of it into my preview of the UMass-Northeastern series this weekend. Keep up the good work!
Cheers